2019 and Beyond


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*** Update: My Best 15 Ideas for 2019 are up +14.6% YTD (Jan). Learn more. ***

It’s that time of the year again. I just posted the Best 15 Stock Ideas for 2019 on Patreon. If you’re interested in joining and becoming a member (there’s 45+ now!), learn more here. On Patreon, you’ll get access to the 2019 Best Ideas list, as well as many more goodies…

I’ve even thrown in a “lottery ticket” idea for 2019 and beyond — Bitcoin. I’ll be called crazy for believing in cryptocurrency, but I now think there’s a future for Bitcoin (and maybe some others such as Ethereum…). However, that doesn’t mean Bitcoin will go to the moon. Some readers will remember that in last year’s “2018 Ideas” newsletter, I said that Bitcoin’s parabolic run-up to $20,000 USD, and the entire cryptocurrency market had “gotta be a bubble”.

I was right. The latest cryptocurrency bubble (2017) popped, and Bitcoin lost 85% of its value through 2018. It’s currently in a bear market. Most crypto-coins will never rebound (similar to what happened in the 2000 dot-com bubble). But I have a hunch that some institutions, hedge funds, and family offices are now accumulating Bitcoin during this bear market. It’s impossible to ignore now; they won’t want to miss the next rally, and a direct stake in cryptocurrency can potentially hedge a portfolio in the future.

It’s a possibility. I was reading the latest edition of The Economist, and they featured a UBS/Campden report, which surveyed 311 Family Offices (Feb-May 2018); here’s the current asset breakdown (average portfolio %):

28.0% Equities
18.1% Property
16.2% Bonds
14.0% Direct Investment (Private Equity)
7.6% Funds (Private Equity)
7.0% Cash
5.7% Hedge Funds
3.4% Commodities
(X% Cryptocurrencies?… maybe soon)

There’s a lot to like about Bitcoin: Decentralized. Non-inflationary. No middleman (e.g. financial institution), etc. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin accepted one day at McDonald’s, and in the future — everywhere. Apparently, 8% of Americans currently have a cryptocurrency wallet (based on a survey), and that’s expected to grow (to ~100%?). Imagine… a global, trusted cryptocurrency that can be used anywhere, by everyone.

Ok, maybe I’ve had too much rum n’ Eggnog today. But if you are intrigued at all, and want to dabble (cautiously) in cryptocurrency, you can use this link to get $10 USD in Bitcoin on Coinbase. Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays!



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